Investment analysis · the economics of risk · AI in finance
Downside First
I find the losses the numbers don’t show: in the accounts, in the price, and in risk models that treat a loss like a gain.
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Ranked in SumZero’s top twenty analysts in each of twelve monthly rankings since September 2025; best placing fifth, among more than 16,000 buy-side professionals. The record
The latest essay · 17 December 2025 · 12 minutes
Regimes of Uncertainty
Despite widespread claims of speculative excess, gold prices are supported by a durable macro regime characterised by geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal constraint, and elevated tail risk. In such an environment, historically high gold prices are not aberrational, they are structural, and…
Read the essay →Recent essays and theses
All sixty-five →- LXIV Greatland Resources: A Metamorphosis into a Leading Australian Gold Producer Australian gold and copper producer, Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP: A$8.30 per share) joins Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), and Canadian gold and copper miner,…
- LXIII Golden Discipline: Investing in the New Era of Profitable Mining As I noted in my thesis on Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), Since then, gold has breached the $4,000/oz barrier, and there is every…
- LXII Apex Mining and The Second Gilded Age Gold mining has historically been a poor way to capture gold’s value, with overinvestment, low-quality assets, and poor capital discipline destroying returns. Today, elevated…
- LXI Ringkjøbing Landbobank: Priced for Decline, Built for Compounding Recently, I have found value in banks, specifically, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO), and now, with Danish regional…
Method
The analyst’s toolkit
Thirty-seven notes on NOPAT, invested capital and valuation adjustments: the workings behind every thesis.
The method →Record
Theses and outcomes
Every closed position and its return, gains and losses alike, with the monthly SumZero rankings.
The record →