Joseph Noko · Investment analysis and the economics of risk
Downside First
I find the losses the numbers don’t show: in the accounts, in the price, and in risk models that treat a loss like a gain.
The latest essay · Research
Regimes of Uncertainty
Despite widespread claims of speculative excess, gold prices are supported by a durable macro regime characterised by geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal constraint, and elevated tail risk. In such an environment, historically high gold prices are not aberrational, they are structural, and they enable select gold miners to generate sustained economic profits while still trading at very attractive
Recent essays
Every essay →Latest ranking October 2026 · Top Thirty All-Time on SumZero All rankings
- LXIV 13 October 2025 · Research Greatland Resources: A Metamorphosis into a Leading Australian Gold Producer Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.1% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Australian gold and copper producer, Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP:…
- LXIII 9 October 2025 · Research Golden Discipline: Investing in the New Era of Profitable Mining Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.2% return. As I noted in my thesis on Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), Since then, gold has breached the…
- LXII 9 September 2025 · Research Apex Mining and The Second Gilded Age Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a 14.4% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Gold mining has historically been a poor way to…
- LXI 22 July 2025 · Research Ringkjøbing Landbobank: Priced for Decline, Built for Compounding Recently, I have found value in banks, specifically, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO), and now, with Danish regional bank, Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S…
- LX 16 July 2025 · Research Iron Lion Zion: Banking on a Exodus from Deep Value At a time of record-high U.S. equity preference, evidence of some diversification away from the U.S., and dollar weakness, Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO, ₤73.90/share) is a very…
- LIX 11 July 2025 · Research JPMorgan Chase and Investing in a Fuzzy Zone In a period of regime uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: $288.19/share) is not only a paradigmatic bank, with a history of profitability stretching back decades,and a “fortress…