Skip to content

Research

Essays and research, newest first

  1. LXV 17 December 2025 Regimes of Uncertainty Despite widespread claims of speculative excess, gold prices are supported by a durable macro regime characterised by geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal constraint, and elevated tail risk. In such an environment, historically high gold prices are not aberrational, they are structural, and they enable select gold miners to generate sustained economic profits while still trading at very attractive
  2. LXIV 13 October 2025 Greatland Resources: A Metamorphosis into a Leading Australian Gold Producer Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.1% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Australian gold and copper producer, Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP:…
  3. LXIII 9 October 2025 Golden Discipline: Investing in the New Era of Profitable Mining Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.2% return. As I noted in my thesis on Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), Since then, gold has breached the…
  4. LXII 9 September 2025 Apex Mining and The Second Gilded Age Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a 14.4% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Gold mining has historically been a poor way to…
  5. LXI 22 July 2025 Ringkjøbing Landbobank: Priced for Decline, Built for Compounding Recently, I have found value in banks, specifically, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO), and now, with Danish regional bank, Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S…
  6. LX 16 July 2025 Iron Lion Zion: Banking on a Exodus from Deep Value At a time of record-high U.S. equity preference, evidence of some diversification away from the U.S., and dollar weakness, Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO, ₤73.90/share) is a very…
  7. LIX 11 July 2025 JPMorgan Chase and Investing in a Fuzzy Zone In a period of regime uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: $288.19/share) is not only a paradigmatic bank, with a history of profitability stretching back decades,and a “fortress…
  8. LVIII 12 May 2025 Easing Trade Relations Make Meta Attractive Again (This investment thesis also appears on the buy-side investment platform, SumZero.) The choking uncertainty around U.S. economic policies caused me to abandon Meta Platforms, Inc. (META: $592.49/share) with…
  9. LVII 9 May 2025 Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi: An Elite Performer Position closed on 13 May 2025, at a loss of 1.4%. Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi (IST:ORGE, ₺108.20/share) is a compelling investment opportunity within the Turkish electrical…
  10. LVI 21 April 2025 SABESP After the State: Capital Cycles, Incentives, and Strategic Renewal Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (BVMF:SBSP3: R$109.01/share), Brazil’s largest water and sanitation utility, serving 28.1 million people with clean water and 25.1…
  11. LV 11 April 2025 A Future Bet Against the S&P 500: A Tactical Position Just before I had a chance to take a position on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) for the second time, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day…
  12. LIV 9 April 2025 A Return to the UVXY This thesis, which also appeared on SumZero, became un-actionable within moments of my writing it up, as President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs, which…
  13. LIII 8 April 2025 Wealth Tends Toward Its Own Destruction Daniel Bernoulli’s paper, “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk” is, perhaps, the greatest theory of risk ever told. First published in Latin in 1738…
  14. LII 4 April 2025 Gaining from Adversity: Deploying the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Initiatd on the 4th of April 2025, this position was closed on the 8th of April 2025, from a sense that the market had baked in the likelihood…
  15. LI 3 April 2025 Uncertainty-Proofing my Portfolio with Gold and Gold Miners: an Unconventional Thesis on a Conventional Hedge This investment thesis also appeared on the investment platform, SumZero. The thesis was closed on 24 April 2025, with a pair return of 8.15%. There is an old…
  16. L 24 March 2025 Market Angst Has Opened the Door to an Investment in Meta Platforms This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. Initiated on the 24th of March, I closed the position on 4 April 2024 with a total shareholder return…
  17. XLIX 23 March 2025 ANY Biztonsági Nyomda Nyrt.: A High-ROIC, Oligopolistic Firm Hiding in Plain Sight This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. ANY Biztonsági Nyomda Nyrt.1 (BUD:ANY: 5,960 Ft/share) is a leader in the security printing industry in Hungary and a…
  18. XLVIII 14 March 2025 AS Merko Ehitus: Built to Profit This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. AS Merko Ehitus (TAL: MRK1T), the largest listed construction company and residential real estate developer in the Baltics, earns…
  19. XLVII 11 February 2025 Presco plc: A Palm Oil Powerhouse with Unmatched Competitive Strength This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. Nigeria’s largest palm oil producer, Presco plc (NGX:PRESCO) earns an attractive rating according to my stock rating methodology, driven…
  20. XLVI 18 January 2025 Forged for Growth: Unlocking Steel Dynamics’ Investment Potential This investment thesis first appeared on SumZero on 27 December 2024, when the position was initiated. It was closed on the 4th of April 2025, with a total…