Australian gold and copper producer, Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP: A$8.30 per share) joins Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), and Canadian gold and copper miner, K92 Mining Inc. (TSX:KNT) and South African gold miner, DRDGOLD Limited (JSE:DRD) in my personal and model portfolio, thanks to its attractive characteristics.
In their 2025 fiscal year (FY) letter to the shareholders, the chairman, Mark Barnaba, and the managing director, Shaun Day, spoke of a “transformative period for Greatland”. Rather than a Kafkaesque metamorphosis into a monstrous verminous bug, this metamorphosis has turned a pre-revenue exploration and development company into a profitable gold and copper producer. This was achieved through the US$450 million (~A$700 million) acquisition “…of the Havieron project, Telfer mine, and other interests in the Paterson region” from the Newmont Corporation (NEM), an acquisition completed on 4 December 2024.
Source: FY 2025 Annual Report
This acquisition has split the history of the company in two, such that it is appropriate to analyse it as if it is an entirely new company, “a new leading Australian gold producer with a strong platform for growth”. It is in FY 2025 that Greatland became a cash-flow generating, profitable mining company with a robust balance sheet and a clear growth pathway.
As a result of the acquisition, the company now boasts a Group Mineral Resource Estimate of 285 million tonnes (Mt) at a grade of 1.11 grams per tonne of gold (g/t Au), 0.14% copper (Cu), or, 10.2 million ounces (Moz) gold, and 387 kilotonnes (kt).
Source: FY 2025 Annual Report
Telfer Mine
Telfer Mine, a producer of gold and copper concentrates with silver by-products, is located at Telfer in the Paterson region of Western Australia. First discovered by Newmont in 1972, it began production in 1977, producing more than 15Moz of gold since then. An established and iconic mine, it has both open pit and underground mining operations. When Greatland bought the mine, they also bought 30.5 million to 34.5 Mt of stockpiles, including 11.5Mt of high-grade run-of-mine ore and 19-23Mt of low-grade stockpiles. The mine’s processing plant, the third largest in the country, has two processing trains, each capable of 10Mt of gold ore, copper-gold concentrate and gold doré, only one of which was operating prior to the acquisition. Greatland resumed dual-train processing and poured its first gold bars under its ownership on 8 December 2024.
Source: Greatland
Day remarked upon the importance of the acquisition, saying that,
Greatland’s first ever gold production at Telfer is a wonderful milestone and a credit to our team. Equally importantly, we are delighted to have resumed dual-train processing operations in line with our Telfer mine plan. The combination of a strong gold price and significant ore stockpiles at surface makes this a tremendous time to own the Telfer mine.
Seven months after the acquisition, Greatland had produced 198,319oz gold, and 8.43kt copper at an All-In-Sustaining-Cost (AISC) of A$1,849/oz Au, net of copper credits, selling 180,570oz of gold at an average realised price of A$4,785, and lifting net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) from -A$26.56 in FY 2024 to A$319.23 million in FY 2025, and NOPAT margins to 33.34%. Despite invested capital rising nearly six-fold, the firm’s balance sheet efficiency rose, with invested capital turns rising from 0.00 to 1.21. As a consequence, Greatland’ return on invested capital (ROIC) shot up from -19.20% to 40.44%. Such has been the success of the acquisition that within those first seven months, cash flow from Tefler’s operations, A$601.1 million, had exceeded the A$541 million upfront acquisition consideration for both Tefler and Havieron. .
The Telfer Mineral Resource Estimate is currently 3.2 million ounces gold and 117kt copper, extending the mine’s life through FY 2027. Management expects to produce 260,000-310,000oz gold in FY 2026, at an AISC of A$2,400-2,800, having deployed A$230-260 million in growth capital toward Telfer, and A$60-70 million toward Havieron, and sustaining A$55-60 million in research development and exploration expense.
Source: October 2025 Corporate Presentation
Telfer is not just a cash engine. Its surplus processing capacity and infrastructure are central to Greatland’s ‘hub and spoke’ strategy, designed to process ore from Havieron and other future regional discoveries, thereby de-risking and reducing capital costs for new projects.
The Havieron Deposit
Havieron -which the company describes as a “world-class, brownfield, high-grade underground gold-copper deposit”- is located in the Paterson region of Western Australia, some 45 kilometres east of the Telfer mine. Management intends to use Telfer’s processing plant and infrastructure to process Havieron’s ore, as part of a hub-and-spoke strategy. First discovered by Greatland in 2018, the project was advanced first through a joint venture between the company and Newcrest from 2019 to 2023, and then by Newmont between 2023 and 2024. Under the 2024 purchase agreement, Greatland acquired Newmont’s 70% interest in the deposit, bringing to 100% its ownership.
Source: Greatland
According to Barnaba and Day,
It is one of the largest high-grade gold discoveries in Australia of the last 20 years and currently the second largest undeveloped high grade gold project by Mineral Resource in Australia, with 7.0Moz gold and 275kt copper in contained metal. The high-grade, sub-vertical and compact nature of the orebody is expected to result in a long life and low cost mine, with development partially completed.
The deposit’s Mineral Resource Estimate (including the Ore Reserve) is 131Mt at a grade of 1.67 g/t Au and 0.21% Cu, or, 7Moz gold and 275kt copper, with an Ore Reserve Estimate of 24.9Mt at a grade of 2.98g/t gold and 0.44% copper, or 2.4Moz gold and 109kt copper.
The Havieron deposit is a deep, compact, and high-grade gold-copper ore body extending 1.4 km vertically and 650 m across, containing a large amount of metal per metre of depth. Greatland has already built most of the access tunnel (about 80%) to reach it, but underground work is paused until the final feasibility study confirms the economics of full-scale mining.
The feasibility study is currently looking at expanding the initially proposed 2.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) single decline truck haulage operation, so that this mining rate increases to 4-4.5Mtpa when the second decline, material handling system and underground crusher are developed.
Exploration Portfolio
Greatland also possesses significant exploration ground within the surrounding Paterson region and broader Western Australia. In the Patterson Region, it owns the Telfer Near Mine, 750km² of tenements within 30km of the Telfer plant; Patterson South, 1,022km² of tenements for which Greatland earns as much as a 75% interest under a farm-in and joint venture agreement with Rio Tinto Group’s (ASX:RIO) exploration subsidiary; and Scallywag, a name shared by my old mine and which one hopes is less trouble, and which consists of 334km² of tenements. In broader Western Australia, it has Ernest Giles, an underexplored Archean greenstone belt in the Yilgarn Craton covering 1,323km² of tenements; and Mt Egerton, 576km² of tenements 230 km north of Meekatharra in the Gascoyne region.
Source: October 2025 Corporate Presentation
Valuation Leaves Room for Upside
At the current price, Greatland has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) of 1.06, implying that the market expects the firm to increase its NOPAT by no more than 6% from FY 2025 levels. Using my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model, I teased out the expectations implied by the current share price.
In the first scenario, I determined the hurdles revenue and NOPAT growth must meet to justify the current price. There,
- revenue compounds by 10% a year, and,
- NOPAT margin remains at 33.34%, then,
Greatland earns A$351.15 million in NOPAT in FY 2026, where the shareholder value per share equals the current price.
If, however, those hurdles are exceeded, and,
- revenue rises to A$1.64 billion, based on a full year’s worth of production at FY 2025 prices, and,
- NOPAT margin remains at 33.34%, then,
Greatland earns A$547.25 million in NOPAT, and the company is worth A$12.32 today, an upside of 48.43% from the current price.
Finally, if,
- revenue rises to A$1.64 billion, and,
- NOPAT margin rises to 38.36%, then,
Greatland earns A$629.43 million in NOPAT, and the company is worth A$14.26 today, an upside of 71.81% from the current price.