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The Mirandolan

Essays and research, newest first

  1. LVIII 9 May 2025 Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi: An Elite Performer Position closed on 13 May 2025, at a loss of 1.4%. Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi (IST:ORGE, ₺108.20/share) is a compelling investment opportunity within the Turkish electrical…
  2. LVII 21 April 2025 SABESP After the State: Capital Cycles, Incentives, and Strategic Renewal Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (BVMF:SBSP3: R$109.01/share), Brazil’s largest water and sanitation utility, serving 28.1 million people with clean water and 25.1…
  3. LVI 11 April 2025 A Future Bet Against the S&P 500: A Tactical Position Just before I had a chance to take a position on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) for the second time, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day…
  4. LV 9 April 2025 A Return to the UVXY This thesis, which also appeared on SumZero, became un-actionable within moments of my writing it up, as President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs, which…
  5. LIV 8 April 2025 Wealth Tends Toward Its Own Destruction Daniel Bernoulli’s paper, “Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk” is, perhaps, the greatest theory of risk ever told. First published in Latin in 1738…
  6. LIII 4 April 2025 Gaining from Adversity: Deploying the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF Initiatd on the 4th of April 2025, this position was closed on the 8th of April 2025, from a sense that the market had baked in the likelihood…
  7. LII 3 April 2025 Uncertainty-Proofing my Portfolio with Gold and Gold Miners: an Unconventional Thesis on a Conventional Hedge This investment thesis also appeared on the investment platform, SumZero. The thesis was closed on 24 April 2025, with a pair return of 8.15%. There is an old…
  8. LI 28 March 2025 Skyline Builders: Sky High Pricing For Low-Growth, Low Profitability I recently published an investment thesis exclusive to the investment platform, Seeking Alpha, where I will be covering recent and forthcoming initial public offerings (IPOs). The article is…
  9. L 24 March 2025 Market Angst Has Opened the Door to an Investment in Meta Platforms This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. Initiated on the 24th of March, I closed the position on 4 April 2024 with a total shareholder return…
  10. XLIX 23 March 2025 ANY Biztonsági Nyomda Nyrt.: A High-ROIC, Oligopolistic Firm Hiding in Plain Sight This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. ANY Biztonsági Nyomda Nyrt.1 (BUD:ANY: 5,960 Ft/share) is a leader in the security printing industry in Hungary and a…
  11. XLVIII 14 March 2025 AS Merko Ehitus: Built to Profit This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. AS Merko Ehitus (TAL: MRK1T), the largest listed construction company and residential real estate developer in the Baltics, earns…
  12. XLVII 11 February 2025 Presco plc: A Palm Oil Powerhouse with Unmatched Competitive Strength This investment thesis also appears on the SumZero platform. Nigeria’s largest palm oil producer, Presco plc (NGX:PRESCO) earns an attractive rating according to my stock rating methodology, driven…
  13. XLVI 18 January 2025 Forged for Growth: Unlocking Steel Dynamics’ Investment Potential This investment thesis first appeared on SumZero on 27 December 2024, when the position was initiated. It was closed on the 4th of April 2025, with a total…
  14. XLV 24 December 2024 The Economics of Active Management In his paper, “The Nature of the Firm”, Ronald Coase proposed that firms exist because there are transaction costs to organising economic activity through the price mechanism such…
  15. XLIV 15 October 2024 Nucor, Executive Compensation and Dividends Initiated on the 15th of October 2024, this position was closed on the 4th of April 2025 with a total shareholder return (TSR) of -31.3%, a victim of…
  16. XLIII 9 October 2024 Steel Your Portfolio With CMC Initiated on the 9th of October 2024, CMC, a victim of market mayhem and concerns about near-term profitability, the position was closed on 4 April 2025, with a…
  17. XLII 4 September 2024 Diamond Hill is Undervalued Regardless of Challenges to its Growth and Profitability I published an update on this investment thesis on 23 December 2024 on SumZero. Opened on the 4th of September 2024, the position was closed on the 31st of…
  18. XLI 15 August 2024 Meta Platforms: Its Economics and Valuation Amidst a global stock sell-off, Meta Platforms' Q2 earnings proved an excellent redoubt, reminding investors of the firm’s remarkable growth and profitability. If Mark Zuckerberg’s present dalliance with generative AI turns out to be a more expensive reenactment of his foray into the metaverse, the company will still be in rude health. There are few firms on the planet that can take the risks Meta can, and few are led by a founder as successful as Zuckerberg. Nevertheless, an analysis of its economics and price-implied expectations embedded into its current, $515.45/share stock price, reveals the most rose-tinted expectations. There is a little suggestion that Meta's financial health is threatened, or that its competitive position is imperilled, rather, expectations implied by the stock price reveal downsides of 10-53%. Consequently, the company earns a “neutral” rating from me. This report should, one hopes, aid the reader in understanding Meta's economics, while leveraging the accounting adjustments I make and a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of the business. I have also made my data completely accessible in an accompanying spreadsheet.
  19. XL 15 July 2024 Competition, Equity Preference and the Decade Ahead for the S&P 500 Using a model I built to forecast 10-year S&P 500 total returns leads to an awful number: 1.16%, the average total returns that are likely, if the predictive value of the model holds, over the 2024-2033 decade, a return lower than that available by simply investing in Treasuries. As the market scales its halcyon heights, it has become almost unsustainably high.
  20. XXXIX 14 July 2024 Economic Book Value: An Estimate of a Stock’s Intrinsic Value Superficially, a valuation methodology exists to help an investor estimate, within a reasonable range, how much something is worth. Investing, however, is not merely an intellectual exercise. The…