My model portfolio is composed of securities from across the world that I discover, and write about on my blog, The Mirandolan and which I feature on the buy-side investment community, SumZero. Although I have started writing articles for Seeking Alpha, those are typically of firms that fall short of the standards required to be part of my model portfolio, especially as many of those companies covered there are shorts, and my model portfolio is long-only. When a stock makes it into my model portfolio and trades on US markets, I share my thesis with both SumZero and Seeking Alpha communities. The rules are simple:
- The security must be publicly listed and, if a stock, have a market capitalisation of at least $100 million.
- For stocks and corporate bonds, after making the appropriate accounting adjustments to the financial statements, I use my stock rating or credit rating methodology to determine if the security is very attractive or attractive. If so, it goes into the model portfolio.
- The model portfolio is equal-weighted to make it easier for the reader to follow the success of each idea.
- If the stock or corporate bond reaches a neutral rating, I assess the economics of the business against that of its peers and the rest of the market, to see if I can find a better risk/reward proposition, otherwise, I close the position.
- The performance of the portfolio is measured against that of the S&P 500 or the risk-free rate, depending on which is the greater.
The portfolio at present is extremely concentrated, as the pie chart below shows.
Performance is assessed at the end of every quarter. Readers who are members of SumZero can assess the current returns there. At the end of 2Q 2025, the model portfolio had generated annualised returns of 152.17%, with each idea earning an average of 15.72% in total returns, 13.4% greater than benchmark returns. Given the differing surfaces of returns, the bulk of securities I have recommend are recommended for short-durations, with a small core meant for the long-run. For example, my position on the UVXY was closed after four days, in which it gained 34%. My position on Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt is another example of a short-term bet, which I closed within days, with a loss of 1.4%, after a highly disappointing earnings report. Within a week of closing the position, the stock was down about 18%, implying that it required a 21.95% share price gain in order to get back to where it was the day I closed the position. From Q3 2025 going forward, I will only recommend long-term bets, given that readers may not be able to react quickly enough to a position close. This means, however, that the frequency of recommendations will be rather low.