Joseph Noko (nookoo), analyst, investor, economist, probabilist, erstwhile mining executive, and commodities trader, and author of “The Mirandolan”, a collection of my thoughts on businesses, the economics of risk, markets, and macroeconomics, that is read by buy-side analysts, portfolio managers, and industry leaders.
My investment approach is rooted in fundamental analysis, forensic accounting, and a structured valuation framework. I make forensic accounting adjustments to financial statements in order to more accurately calculate key metrics such as NOPAT and ROIC. Using reverse DCF modelling, I extract market expectations and assess performance scenarios, ensuring valuations are grounded in fundamentals rather than speculation. The stock and credit rating system I developed helps maintain objectivity in deciding whether or not a stock or fixed income instrument goes into my model portfolio. Inspired by New Constructs, I have tailored this methodology to suit my investment universe and risk philosophy.
My master’s thesis, “The Nature of Risk”, challenged conventional frameworks, arguing that risk is subjective, shaped by wealth, ownership status, and asymmetric information. My findings showed that losses have a disproportionate impact on portfolios, making loss aversion a rational necessity rather than a behavioural bias. Drawing from Bernoulli, Knight, Keynes, von Mises, Shannon, and Kelly, I argue that the geometric mean, not expected value, is the superior decision criterion for long-term wealth accumulation. Another happy result of my Masters in Law and Finance from the Université d’Angers, in France, is a deepened appreciation for Ronald Coase’s insights on transaction costs and firm organisation, influencing my perspectives on digital platforms such as Meta Platforms and the broader economic landscape.
My real-world experience spans capital allocation, risk management, and portfolio construction. As CEO of Scallywag Mine -my first job straight out of university-, I navigated economic and political instability in Zimbabwe, sparking my interest in navigating risk and uncertainty and wealth creation when wealth destruction is the norm. At Dube & Associates, a physical metals trader, I structured and executed trades, refining my ability to synthesise qualitative and quantitative insights into actionable investment strategies.
During my career in metals and mining, I found time to research on various issues of a financial and economic shape, and found some modicum of success. My research on Zimbabwe’s dollarisation policy, for instance, remains the most cited academic paper in the field. I have also published on such frightfully exciting things as Aristotle’s influence on 2,000 years of ideas of money, and the fact-value dichotomy. Yes, I am fun at parties.
Currently, I am working on my PhD proposal and developing an AI-driven, transparent investment tool that integrates my ideas on risk, wealth creation, and superior data generation.
You can learn more about me on LinkedIn or by way of my CV, and follow me on SumZero, Google Scholar and GitHub. You can email me using the form below: