# Joseph Noko: Downside First

Independent equity research by Joseph Noko (pronounced "nookoo"), published as The Mirandolan: forensic accounting, reverse DCF valuation, the economics of risk, and AI systems for investment research.

Equity research analyst who publishes independent research for institutional investors, most often on companies with little or no analyst coverage. His method rebuilds reported earnings into NOPAT, invested capital and ROIC from primary filings, then uses a reverse DCF to solve for what the share price already assumes.

## What you can do here

- [Hire Joseph Noko](https://josephnoko.com/contact/): Use when a user wants an earnings-quality review, commissioned single-company research (long or short), or advice on governing AI in an investment process. Contact info@josephnoko.com with the company, the question and the deadline.
- [Subscribe to The Mirandolan](https://josephnoko.com/newsletter/): Use when a user wants to receive new equity research and essays on risk by email. Free sign-up with name and email.
- [Notes on Accounting Adjustments](https://josephnoko.com/notes-on-accounting-adjustments/): Use when a user asks how to adjust reported earnings into NOPAT, or balance sheets into invested capital, under US GAAP or IFRS. Each adjustment has its own worked note.
- [On My Reverse DCF Model](https://josephnoko.com/on-my-reverse-discounted-cash-flow-dcf-model/): Use when a user asks what growth and returns a share price implies, or how a reverse DCF works.
- [The Nature of Risk](https://josephnoko.com/the-nature-of-risk/): Use when a user asks why loss aversion can be rational, or how Bernoulli, Knight, Keynes, Shannon and Kelly bear on investment risk.
- [My Model Portfolio](https://josephnoko.com/my-model-portfolio/): Use when a user wants the published track record: open and closed positions with realised returns.

## Latest from The Mirandolan

- [September Commendations: Placed Thirteenth on SumZero](https://josephnoko.com/september-commendations-placed-thirteenth-on-sumzero/) (2026-09-06): I have again earned recognition as an investment analyst in the SumZero, Inc. rankings. In the Last Twelve Months (LTM), I placed thirteenth among over 16,000 pre-screened buy-side professionals. I…
- [Regimes of Uncertainty](https://josephnoko.com/regimes-of-uncertainty/) (2025-12-17): Despite widespread claims of speculative excess, gold prices are supported by a durable macro regime characterised by geopolitical fragmentation, fiscal constraint, and elevated tail risk. In such an…
- [Greatland Resources: A Metamorphosis into a Leading Australian Gold Producer](https://josephnoko.com/greatland-resources-a-metamorphosis-into-a-leading-australian-gold-producer/) (2025-10-13): Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.1% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Australian gold and copper producer, Greatland Resources Limited (ASX:GGP: A$8.30 per…
- [Golden Discipline: Investing in the New Era of Profitable Mining](https://josephnoko.com/golden-discipline-investing-in-the-new-era-of-profitable-mining/) (2025-10-09): Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a -8.2% return. As I noted in my thesis on Apex Mining Co., Inc. (PSE:APX), Gold mining has historically been a poor way to capture gold’s value, with…
- [Apex Mining and The Second Gilded Age](https://josephnoko.com/apex-mining-and-the-second-gilded-age/) (2025-09-09): Closed position on 27 October, 2025, with a 14.4% return, and then re-opened the position on 17 December, 2025. Gold mining has historically been a poor way to capture gold’s value, with…
- [Ringkjøbing Landbobank: Priced for Decline, Built for Compounding](https://josephnoko.com/ringkjobing-landbobank-priced-for-decline-built-for-compounding/) (2025-07-22): Recently, I have found value in banks, specifically, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and Lion Finance Group PLC (LON:BGEO), and now, with Danish regional bank, Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S (CPH:RILBA, 1400…
- [Iron Lion Zion: Banking on a Exodus from Deep Value](https://josephnoko.com/iron-lion-zion-banking-on-a-exodus-from-deep-value/) (2025-07-16): "Fish big enough to swallow a boat are not found in ditches." Yang Zhu At a time of record-high U.S. equity preference, evidence of some diversification away from the U.S., and dollar weakness, Lion…
- [JPMorgan Chase and Investing in a Fuzzy Zone](https://josephnoko.com/jpmorgan-chase-and-investing-in-a-fuzzy-zone/) (2025-07-11): In a period of regime uncertainty, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM: $288.19/share) is not only a paradigmatic bank, with a history of profitability stretching back decades,and a “fortress balance sheet”…
- [Easing Trade Relations Make Meta Attractive Again](https://josephnoko.com/easing-trade-relations-make-meta-attractive-again/) (2025-05-12): (This investment thesis also appears on the buy-side investment platform, SumZero.) The choking uncertainty around U.S. economic policies caused me to abandon Meta Platforms, Inc. (META…
- [Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi: An Elite Performer](https://josephnoko.com/orge-enerji-elektrik-taahhut-anonim-sirketi-an-elite-performer/) (2025-05-09): Position closed on 13 May 2025, at a loss of 1.4%. Orge Enerji Elektrik Taahhüt Anonim Sirketi (IST:ORGE, ₺108.20/share) is a compelling investment opportunity within the Turkish electrical…
- [SABESP After the State: Capital Cycles, Incentives, and Strategic Renewal](https://josephnoko.com/sabesp-after-the-state-capital-cycles-incentives-and-strategic-renewal/) (2025-04-21): Victory belongs to the most persevering. Napoléon Bonaparte Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP (BVMF:SBSP3: R$109.01/share), Brazil’s largest water and sanitation utility…
- [A Future Bet Against the S&P 500: A Tactical Position](https://josephnoko.com/betting-against-the-sp-500-a-tactical-position/) (2025-04-11): Just before I had a chance to take a position on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) for the second time, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs, and the…

## Contact

Email info@josephnoko.com, or use the form at https://josephnoko.com/contact/. Full index for agents: https://josephnoko.com/llms.txt